Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis. I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week. Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week.
Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's. Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing. Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs. For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now. They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards. The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%. I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters. In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success. This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%.
A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year. Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game. Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game.
